Reactivate the Right Donors: A Predictive Mail Test

What?

“At a large nonprofit, the team faced a long tail of lapsed supporters. With a target group over 40,000, they needed to grow the active file without mailing everyone. They trained a model to spot donors most likely to return. Response jumped, average gift dipped slightly, and because they mailed the right people, revenue per letter rose—adding revenue and bringing extra donors back into the fold.”

Reactivation means inviting lapsed donors (no gifts in 24 months) back to giving.

So What?

Reactivation expands your active file and yields near-term revenue when you have enough donor history to model on. That history matters most in reactivation.

Input insight: with sufficient records (many donors with ≥3 gifts and a 24‑month lapse), prediction can make reactivation in your own database very lucrative.

Now What?

Try this sequence this week:

1. Confirm you have enough history (≥3 past gifts; 24‑month lapse cohort).
2. Train a reactivation model and mail top‑score bands first.
3. Track response, revenue per letter, and returning‑donor count—not response alone.

Results

• Representative test at a large organization; >40k audience.
• Prediction model for reactivation potential; uplift statistically significant.
• Exact percentage changes are summarized in the highlight cards at the top.

Key Takeaways

• Reactivation works when history is rich.
• Mail the right lapsed donors, not all.
• Measure value, not response alone.

Curiosity Spark

Do you have enough 24‑month lapsed donors with ≥3 gifts to model reactivation today?